Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Likely Statewide Today… Heavy Downpours will Lead to Flooding on Roadways and Low-Lying Areas… Tropics Remain Active with Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Depression Florence, Neither are a Florida Threat…

Updated 8:30 AM EDT Monday

 

 

 

A tropical wave over the Florida Big Bend will bring scattered to numerous showers and storms to Northwest Florida throughout the day today. Rain chances are around 60-70% over the Florida Panhandle and although severe weather is not expected, there is a good chance for frequent lightning and strong wind gusts within some of the developing storms. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with over rainfall amounts expected to reach up to 1 inch with some localized areas receiving upwards of 3 to 5 inches today. These copious rainfall amounts will likely lead to flooding and ponding on roadways and in low-lying areas. Additionally, there will be a slight risk for waterspouts along the Panhandle coastline today. If you come across a flooded roadway, do not cross it! Remember to turn around and don’t drown.

 

 

 

For the Peninsula, another tropical wave off the Florida East Coast will combine with a moist and southerly wind flow over the area and the daily sea breeze activity which will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms today. These will likely begin near the coast during the morning and become numerous over the inland areas this afternoon into the early evening. The stronger storms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain of over two inches possible. A few of the developing storms may reach severe levels this afternoon, mainly over interior locations. Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay aware of weather conditions today. Listen for alerts via NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio or your local news media.

 

 

 

At the coast, a moderate rip current riskwill be in place along the Northeast Florida coast from Nassau County through Flagler County due to onshore winds and lingering ocean swells. Although a low risk is expected for the rest of the Atlantic Coast and all of Florida’s Gulf beaches, rip currents can still form near piers and jetties.

 

At 8am EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Ernesto was about 730 miles south of Miami, Florida. Ernesto has slowed down overnight and is now moving towards the west at 12 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center and computer models have shifted south, but are in excellent agreement, taking Ernesto south of the Cayman Islands today and then north of Honduras tonight and Tuesday before moving inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph, but light wind shear and warm ocean temperatures should allow for some slow strengthening through the next 48 hours. There are no watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone or at risk for tropical storm force winds.

 

Further east, Florence weakened into a tropical depression early this morning while located in the central Atlantic. Tropical Depression Florence is moving toward the west at 12 mph, but models agree that Florence should turn west-northwest and accelerate over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph. Additional weakening is expected and should degenerate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours. Long range models show Florence curving north, east of the U.S. eastern seaboard, this weekend and next week. For more information from the National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

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Courtesy:  National Hurricane Center / NOAA