DISASTER FORECASTED | Hurricane #Patricia Strongest Ever Seen and Recorded

SUMMARY

Why all of a sudden with all the Alerts and sheer panic? Why are we just now hearing about this?

As one writes on Social Media:

The storm nearly literally “came out of nowhere.” It first was issued as an advisory on Tuesday at 10 AM, with the innocuous comment: “TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC… …EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…”

By 10 PM Tuesday, it was already “Tropical Storm Patricia.”

By 4:00 AM Thursday, it was “Hurricane Patricia.”

Usually on the Atlantic, you can watch the formation of hurricanes as they begin way out over the Atlantic. This storm just spawned as if it were “a match thrown onto a pool full of gasoline.”

So, there you have the best answer that we could locate – and, it totally makes sense.

IMMEDIATE BROADCASTS

The National Weather Center / Hurricane Center updated Public Safety Advisory #15 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/231448.shtml) at 1000 Hours CDT (NWS Hurricane Center in Florida),

“Potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Patricia moving Northward toward Landfall in Southwestern Mexico.”

It has been stated by the Weather Service, Hurricane #Patricia is the strongest eastern N Pacific Hurricane to be on record to hit landfall and considered the strongest tropical cyclone on record in terms of sustained speeds at 200mph.  Some sources are reporting that the Hurricane is also reaching gusts of 250mph.

Weather watches and warnings have been issued.  The Mexican Government has also issued their own Tropical Storm Warning and evacuation preparations began yesterday into working diligently overnight.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

Hurricane Warning (Definition: Means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.)

  • San Blas to Punta San Telmo

Hurricane Watch (Definition:  means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.)

  • East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

Tropical Storm Warning (Definition:  means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.)

  • East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
  • North of San Blas to El Roblito

Preparation to Protect Life and Safety should be immediately moved to completion.

RAINFALL PREDICTED

Rainfall from Hurricane #Patricia is expected to be 8-12″ accumulations with some at a total of 20″ in isolated areas.  Heavy rainfall is due to impact Mexican States: Nayant, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.

With this amount of rainfall, this could produce life-threatening flooding and mud slides.

US FLOOD ALERTS

There are Alerts about lower Coastal flooding in the South Central States:  in the New Orleans and Shreveport areas into Houston, TX.  Read this more detailed article here –> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/flooding-tropical-downpours-patricia-texas-oklahoma-central-us/53098639.

WIND CONDITIONS

Winds are predicted to reach Hurricane conditions in the warning areas in the next several hours. Worst conditions are expected to occur this afternoon / evening.

This Hurricane is predicted to be a Category 5 when it hits landfall is said to continue with sustained winds of 200 mph with higher gusts and is expected to travel North-Northeasterly across Western and Northern Mexico.  The forecast is predicting the Hurricane then will quickly weaken over the mountains.

STORM SURGE

Large to destructive waves are predicted to occur and cause life-threatening coastal flooding.

SURF

Swells are already affecting portions of the Southern Coasts in Mexico.

EMERGENCY COMMUNICATIONS

The Amateur Radio Operators in the Mexican State of Colima activated the Emergency net from the University of Colima by Omar Alvarez, XE1AO.  The net is operating on 7060 kHz.

They are asking the Amateur Radio communities to keep 14,120 kHz and 21,120 kHz clear for possible emergency traffic.

Reported so far:

  • Water Supply and most major grocery outlets closed in Manzanillo
  • Economic activity has been shut down in Manzanillo and Colima
  • Most tourists evacuated from all Coastal hotels
  • Evacuation of 60,000 residents currently under way
  • Colima still has some businesses open

(Source:  http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateurs-in-mexico-prepare-as-powerful-hurricane-patricia-nears-landfall)

Hurricane #Patricia. [Courtesy of NWS]

Hurricane #Patricia. [Courtesy of NWS]

RESOURCES

We will be providing Resource Info in each of our Updates.  If you feel we may have missed something, please let us know.  You can reach us on Twitter @nwfireblog or drop us a line at nwfireblog@comcast.net.

Facebook Page – “Hurricane Patricia”

https://www.facebook.com/groups/HurricanePatricia – Moderator:  Peter Corless.  The Page lists updates regarding the weather, Embassy info for UK residents, Preparations and personal commentaries by its members. 26 members to date.

OUR COMMENTARY

We have a lot of faith in Emergency Management and know they are working tirelessly  in evacuating people out of harm’s way.  Those in Mexico, you are in our thoughts and prayers.

(c) 2015 The #NWFireBlog