UPDATE 2 |Hurricane #Patricia Downgraded

SUMMARY

Great News!

Hurricane #Patricia is weakening slowly and therefore has been downgraded from a Category 5 to a 4, but sill remains extremely dangerous as a major Hurricane over Mexico with min pressure of 946 mb and max sustained at 130 mph with higher gusts of winds.

The Hurricane is said to have made landfall around 0615 local time.

No injuries or specific damage reports have been received yet.

Hurricane #Patricia as of 0325 UTC or 2025 PDT on 10/23/15 [Courtesy of NOAA GOES East Imagery Sattelite]

Hurricane #Patricia as of 0325 UTC or 2025 PDT on 10/23/15 [Courtesy of NOAA GOES East Imagery satellite]

LOCATION

A Public  Advisory  given by NWS website at 0300 UTC or 2200 CDT state the Hurricane is moving 20 mph NNE.  It is now located 85 miles NNW of Manzanillo and 50 miles SE of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

 

 

WARNINGS

Hurricane Warning:  San Blas to Punta San Telmo.

Tropical Storm Warning:  East of Punta San Telmo to Lzaro Cardenas and N of San Blas to El Roblito.

ALERTS

The following States are on alert or have been impacted:

  • Aguacalentes
  • Colima
  • Durango
  • Mexico State
  • Guanajuato
  • Guerrero
  • Michogcan
  • Nayarit
  • Zactecas
  • Jalisco*

*  34 Municipalities in Jalisco have declared a state of emergency

FUTURE FORECAST

The Weather Service expect #Patricia will become a tropical storm tomorrow and a tropical depression in the afternoon.

(Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/240242.shtml)

RAINFALL PREDICTED

Rainfall from Hurricane #Patricia is still expected to fall to accumulations of 8-12″ with  a max total of 20″ in isolated areas.  Heavy rainfall is due to impact Mexican States: Nayant, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.

With this amount of rainfall, this could produce life-threatening flooding and mud slides.

COMMUNICATIONS

They are asking the Amateur Radio communities to keep 14,120 kHz and 21,120 kHz clear for possible emergency traffic. Emergency net has been established on 7060.

(Source:  http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateurs-in-mexico-prepare-as-powerful-hurricane-patricia-nears-landfall)

Hurricane #Patricia. [Courtesy of NWS]

Hurricane #Patricia. [Courtesy of NWS]

SOCIAL MEDIA

We will be providing  Updates gleaned from Social Media and on the internet.

If you feel we may have missed something, please let us know.  You can reach us on Twitter @nwfireblog or drop us a line at nwfireblog@comcast.net.

Storm Updates – Facebook Page “Hurricane Patricia”

https://www.facebook.com/groups/HurricanePatricia – Moderator:  Peter Corless.  The Page lists updates regarding the weather, Embassy info for UK residents, Preparations and personal commentaries by its members. 26 members to date.

Travel within Mexico

@fema : U.S. citizens traveling in Mexico, you can follow these for more information on Hurricane #Patricia. If you’re a US citizen traveling in Mexico, you can follow  @usembassyMEX, @travelgov @statedept .

Safe and Well Reporting

American Red Cross has a Safe and Well website you can register to let loved ones know you are safe and well or you can search friends and family on this website.  Here is the link –> http://www.redcross.org/find-help/contact-family/register-safe-listing

Message Board for the La Manzanilla Community

http://members5.boardhost.com/lamanzanilla/

UPDATES

We will continue to monitor the weather, status of the Hurricane and all other weather related damage assessment, injuries, etc.

OUR COMMENTARY

The Mexican people are in our thoughts and prayers as this Hurricane is directly impacting them. First Responders, be safe out there. We are thinking of you all.

(c) 2015 The #NWFireBlog

Social Media:  @nwfireblog / Twitter — The NW Fire Blog / Facebook


			

The NWS Update: Hurricane Sandy

000
WTNT63 KNHC 300101
TCUAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
900 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS REPORTED OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW
YORK METROPOLITAN AREAS…

SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT…0100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…39.6N 74.6W
ABOUT 15 MI…24 KM NW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.96 INCHES

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM
TIDE HEIGHT…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE RELATIVE TO
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER…OF 13.3 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK…13.7
FEET AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK…AND 13.3 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY.

A WIND GUST TO 79 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
NEW YORK. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING
AT ISLIP NEW YORK.

NHC WILL ISSUE ITS LAST ADVISORY ON SANDY AT 1100 PM EDT.  THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER…HPC…WILL BEGIN ISSUING
PUBLIC ADVISORIES AT 500 AM EDT TUESDAY. HPC PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL
BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORIES…AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

Courtesy: The National Weather Service

Reposted 10/29/12 1820 Hours PST

Fire Advisory Warning in Affect: Washington State

URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
251 PM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING…

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER AN EPISODE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.
FINER FUELS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE CASCADE VALLEYS
BELOW 3500 FEET IN ELEVATION ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO CARRY ANY
POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS.

WAZ673-676-677-081545-
/O.NEW.KOTX.FW.A.0001.120709T0000Z-120710T0000Z/
EAST WASHINGTON NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 673)-
EAST WASHINGTON SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADE VALLEYS (ZONE 676)-
EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL CASCADE VALLEYS (ZONE 677)-
251 PM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE
CASCADE VALLEYS BELOW 3500 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPOKANE HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONE 673 EAST WASHINGTON NORTHERN
  COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 673)…FIRE WEATHER ZONE 676 EAST
  WASHINGTON SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADE VALLEYS (ZONE 676 BELOW 3500 FT)
  AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 677 EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL CASCADE
  VALLEYS (ZONE 677 BELOW 3500 FT).

* THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD TO
  GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED.

* OUTFLOW WINDS: WINDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
  LIGHT…HOWEVER ERRATIC WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS: LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS
  ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

Flood Warning Advisory In Affect: New Mexico

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

NMC003-080145-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FA.Y.0073.120707T2344Z-120708T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATRON-
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
  SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 540 PM MDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE PUEBLO CREEK AND SAN FRANCISCO
  RIVER PORTIONS OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR. THE CATRON
  COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE HAD RECEIVED SPOTTER REPORTS OF BLACK
  WATER FLOWING DOWNSTREAM IN THE WHITEWATER RIVER.

  THIS WILL IMPACT THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR INCLUDING BUT NOT
  LIMITED TO HIGHWAY 180 BRIDGE AT ALMA OVER MINERAL CREEK…STATE
  ROAD 159…MOGOLLON AND SILVER CREEK…THE CATWALK…STATE ROAD
  174…HIGHWAY 180 BRIDGE AT GLENWOOD OVER WHITEWATER CREEK AND THE
  FISH HATCHERY…HIGHWAY 180 OVER HOLT GULCH IN PLEASANTON…STATE
  ROAD 435.

  THIS WILL IMPACT THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR INCLUDING BUT NOT
  LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE AND WEST FORKS OF THE GILA RIVER…THE GILA
  CLIFF DWELLINGS AND STATE ROAD 15…LOCO MOUNTAIN ROAD…FOREST
  ROAD 142.

* STRONG FLOWS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN ARROYOS…SMALL
  STREAMS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS. RAPID RUNOFF CAN ALSO BE
  EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM FROM WILDFIRE BURN SCARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY FIRE
BURN AREA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF ROAD INTERSECTIONS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. WATERS MAY BEGIN
TO RUN IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS.

&&

LAT…LON 3361 10871 3350 10831 3321 10828 3320 10887
      3347 10890

$$


000
WGUS85 KABQ 072344
FLSABQ

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

NMC003-080145-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FA.Y.0073.120707T2344Z-120708T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATRON-
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 540 PM MDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE PUEBLO CREEK AND SAN FRANCISCO
  RIVER PORTIONS OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR. THE CATRON
  COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE HAD RECEIVED SPOTTER REPORTS OF BLACK
  WATER FLOWING DOWNSTREAM IN THE WHITEWATER RIVER.

  THIS WILL IMPACT THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR INCLUDING BUT NOT
  LIMITED TO HIGHWAY 180 BRIDGE AT ALMA OVER MINERAL CREEK...STATE
  ROAD 159...MOGOLLON AND SILVER CREEK...THE CATWALK...STATE ROAD
  174...HIGHWAY 180 BRIDGE AT GLENWOOD OVER WHITEWATER CREEK AND THE
  FISH HATCHERY...HIGHWAY 180 OVER HOLT GULCH IN PLEASANTON...STATE
  ROAD 435.

  THIS WILL IMPACT THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR INCLUDING BUT NOT
  LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE AND WEST FORKS OF THE GILA RIVER...THE GILA
  CLIFF DWELLINGS AND STATE ROAD 15...LOCO MOUNTAIN ROAD...FOREST
  ROAD 142.

* STRONG FLOWS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN ARROYOS...SMALL
  STREAMS AND OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS. RAPID RUNOFF CAN ALSO BE
  EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM FROM WILDFIRE BURN SCARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WITHIN
VULNERABLE DRAINAGES IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY FIRE
BURN AREA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF ROAD INTERSECTIONS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. WATERS MAY BEGIN
TO RUN IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 10871 3350 10831 3321 10828 3320 10887
      3347 10890

Flood Warnings in Washington, Oregon States

As of March 29, 2012 – the National Weather Service (a division of NOAA) issued a flood warning for Washington State.

SKYKOMISH RIVER near Potlatch affecting Mason County.

With rain today, drove the water up to flood stage.  The river will crest a little over flood stage this evening with minor flooding expected.

Warnings – Do not drive through flooded areas as these have been reported as the highest cause of deaths. 

Flood stage is 16.5 feet and is expected to rise to 16.6 feet.

This warning is in affect until Friday morning.

GRAYS RIVER near Roseburg affecting Wahkiakum County; NEHALEM RIVER near Foss affecting Clatsop & Tillamook Counties; WILSON RIVER near Tillamook affecting Tillamook Counties.

Flood stage is a 14.0 feet and expected to rise to 14.5 feet with low lying farm land and minor flooding of structures.

This warning is in effect until further notice.  It will take awhile for the river to recede.

Contact NOAA weather website http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sew&wwa=flood

Be safe out there and remember, to obey all of the “Closed” signage.  Please don’t try to go around them thinking you can make it because it will put you and those at risk and could result in a ticket.

(C) 2012 The NW Fire Blog